ABSTRACT

Numerical simulations of coarse-resolution, idealized ocean basins under constant surface heat flux are analyzed to show that the interdecadal oscillations that emerge naturally in such configurations are driven by baroclinic instability of the mean state and damped by horizontal diffusion. When the surface heat fluxes are diagnosed from a spinup in which surface temperatures are strongly restored to apparent atmospheric temperatures, the most unstable regions diagnosed by large downgradient eddy heat fluxes are located in the basin northwest corner where the surface heat losses are largest. The long-wave limit of the baroclinic instability of idealized mean flows in a three-layer model with vertical shears as observed in the GCMs demonstrates that growth rates of order one cycle per year can be produced locally, large enough to amplify thermal anomalies in the face of lateral diffusion. The proposed instability mechanism that favors surface-intensified perturbations also explains the lack of oscillations if the restoring to a surface climatology is too strong. To assess whether this instability process of oceanic origin is robust enough to cause interdecadal variability of coupled ocean–atmosphere models, a four-box ocean–atmosphere model is constructed. Given the large heat capacity of the ocean as compared to the atmosphere, the dynamical system that governs the model evolution is reduced to only two degrees of freedom, the oceanic overturning thermohaline circulation and the interior north–south temperature gradient. The authors show that, when the baroclinic instability growth rate exceeds the overall dissipation caused by turbulent eddy diffusion in the atmosphere and ocean and infrared back radiation, the dynamical system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation, and interdecadal oscillations emerge through a limit cycle.

©1999, American Meteorological Society